Suggestions

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Prediction Markets for Life Outcomes

Create binary event contracts on Mike’s life decisions and outcomes, similar to how Polymarket/Kalshi work. Shareholders could trade contracts like “Will Mike accept the new job offer?” or “Will Mike’s next creative project launch by Q3?” Trading prices would reflect collective probability estimates, creating a real-time sentiment indicator separate from voting. This differs from voting because it’s about predicting outcomes (including ones Mike controls and ones he doesn’t), not directing decisions.

Dev Requirements:

  • Binary contract creation system with yes/no positions
  • Market-making mechanism (AMM or order book)
  • Settlement oracle (Mike or designated arbiter confirms outcome)
  • Separate from share ownership—could use points or small cash stakes
  • Price history charts showing probability over time