Suggestions

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Fail Monte Carlo runs that exceed withdrawal strategy

Add an option to run Monte Carlo simulations where “success” is defined not only as avoiding portfolio depletion, but also as consistently staying within the limits of a chosen Withdrawal Strategy (WS). This would give users a more conservative and realistic measure of whether their plan is sustainable without requiring adjustments.

1 vote

Tagged as Suggestion

Suggested 23 August 2025 by user James Stout

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  • 23 August 2025 James Stout suggested this task

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    I think we might need some elaboration here. If the WS is enabled (chosen), it shouldn’t be violating it.

    27 August 2025
  • 27 August 2025 Shawn @PL approved this task

  • avatar

    Today, enabling a WS overrides the user’s plan, so (as you note) by definition it can’t be violated. I’m proposing an alternative way to apply the WS – call it “watch mode” – where the WS is used as a benchmark, not a controller.

    How watch mode would work:

    • Run Monte Carlo unchanged (use the user’s configured expenses/cash flows; no WS overrides).
    • After each trial, compute the WS allowance per year (per the chosen WS formula) and compare to the trial’s actual simulated expenses.
    • If any year’s expenses exceed the WS limit, mark that trial as a WS breach.
    • Report a new Outcome Category (Kind of Failure): Exceeded Withdrawal Strategy = % of trials that breached the WS.

    Two alternative approaches for surfacing this option:

    1. Add a toggle in the WS panel: Override (current behavior) vs Watch (new). This would apply in both MC (as described above) and the main plan view, by adding icons to any year where the plan is breached.
    2. Alternatively, add a Monte Carlo-specific setting for Override vs. Watch behavior. This would only affect MC, leaving the main plan UI unchanged.

    One might note that this is strict/brittle, with one over-cap year resulting in failure. That’s deliberate and pairs naturally with the existing request for Flex % expenses in MC: in Watch mode, flexing would trigger precisely when a breach is imminent, reducing discretionary spend to stay within the WS cap.

    28 August 2025