Not sure if this counts as a new suggestion, but it would be nice to filter the historical starting years by CAPE in the “Chance of success” simulations.

For example, it would be nice to filter out starting years with lower CAPE because it may give an overly optimistic chance of success. Similarly, it would be nice to filter out starting years with higher CAPE because they may give an overly pessimistic chance of success.

That leads to what I really want, a way to filter the starting years that have a similar CAPE to today (how similar? maybe configurable), to see what comparable CAPE value-years have yielded in historical scenarios.

Also, would be nice to be able to use ERN’s new CAPE: https://earlyretirementnow.com/2022/10/05/building-a-better-cape-ratio/

Related, one of the interesting capabilities that they have in the Early Retirement Now Toolbox is the sloped failure rate based on CAPE/ SPX all time high vs % drawdown. Their research found that the expected failure rate increases if you retire around an all time high, due to the timing risks of retirement right before a huge market drop (sequence of return risk).