Suggestions

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Growth Rate Option to Sample Monte Carlo Simulation

It would be great if one of the Growth Rate options was to choose some percentile example from the monte carlo simulation samples. For instance, choose a median result, or if the plan success rate is 75% perhaps it would choose a 75th percentile monte carlo result.

Right now I use a fixed rate 8% (7.28% real rate) and it goes sky high, even though it’s right in line with historical settings, to the point where you can’t really trust the graph that shows in the Plan tab. It would be great to be able to show one of or sift through the visualizations for the monte carlo runs.

8 votes

Tagged as Suggestion

Suggested 30 October 2023 by user Jeff H

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  • 30 October 2023 Jeff H suggested this task

  • 31 October 2023 Kyle Nolan approved this task

  • avatar
    Kyle Nolan

    Hey Jeff, have you noticed that you can click into each individual trial in MC mode and review them in more detail? Or are you looking for more capability than that?

    31 October 2023
  • avatar
    Jeff H
    Kyle Nolan: Hey Jeff, have you …

    I did see that, albeit after the suggestion. What I think would be useful is the ability to tell the tool “on the main plan page, show me the 25th percentile MC.” That way I could look at my “worst case” for a plan.

    02 November 2023
  • avatar
    John James

    I would love to be able to see Sankey diagrams, etc, for different Monte Carlo results (especially with 4.4.0’s addition of block bootstrap and discretionary spending, this would be really valuable.)

    28 September
  • avatar
    Tom Smith

    Restating or adding to the feature request… Run a MC simulation and then click on a resulting individual trial to create a sort of temporary(?) Plan based on the trial’s yearly growth/dividend/inflation parameters. That lets the user examine what happened using the PL standard views. The user could even modify this Plan to experiment with ideas on how to change the outcome.

    29 September
  • avatar
    John James

    Tom’s idea would be really useful with all of the new 4.4.0 features.

    29 September
  • avatar
    fletchmath

    I made the following suggestion in another post, which is closely related to this one, so I’ll copy it here:

    *I use CoS trials to generate return sequences that are challenging to my plan. It is impossible, though, to return to a particular trial after making plan changes to see how they impact results.

    It would be nice to be able to click a button when viewing a trial and have its rate data copied over to the static plan as curves in the advanced editors.

    (It would also be nice in a related way to be able to copy the random seed used to generate a MC run – If I encounter a probabilistic run that has particularly interesting trials in it, having a mechanism to re-run that set would be nice. Note that being able to set a seed value does not by itself satisfy this desire)

    I think this would work best if the advanced editor were extended to allow curves to be stored and recalled (as I described in this incredibly popular suggestion here: https://changemap.co/projectifi/projectifi/task/9885-add-ability-to-save-curves/)*

    05 October