Planned

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Set default Mean / Std. Dev in Data_Sources:Normal_Distribution based on Historical Actuals

2 votes

Tagged as Suggestion

Suggested 04 February by user Straight Flush

Moved into Planned 04 February

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  • 04 February Straight Flush suggested this task

  • avatar
    Straight Flush

    Suggestion is to base the default Mean & Std. Dev. for the Normal_Distribution Data_Sources used in Chance_of_Success projections on the Historical actuals that PL uses.

    Historical Actuals (1928-2023) Investment Returns: Mean = 7.5%, Std Dev. = 18.9% Dividend Yield: Mean = 4.0%, Std Dev. = 1.9% Inflation: Mean = 3.1%, Std Dev. = 3.8%

    04 February

  • 04 February Kyle Nolan moved this task into Planned

  • avatar
    Straight Flush

    Or PL could use use more recent values:

    Historical Actuals (1983-2023) Investment Returns: Mean = 10.3%, Std Dev. = 16.3% Dividend Yield: Mean = 2.7%, Std Dev. = 1.1% Inflation: Mean = 2.9%, Std Dev. = 1.5%

    or Historical Actuals (1973-2023) Investment Returns: Mean = 9.0%, Std Dev. = 17.1% Dividend Yield: Mean = 3.1%, Std Dev. = 1.5% Inflation: Mean = 4.0%, Std Dev. = 2.9%

    04 February