Indeed, implementing risk-based guardrails, as recently discussed by Derek Tharp on Kitces.com, could be extremely useful (see: https://www.kitces.com/blog/guyton-klinger-guardrails-retirement-income-rules-risk-based). Risk-based guardrails use the probability of success metric to adjust spending, while solving most of the shortcomings of classical guardrail methods (e.g. Guyton-Klinger). It’s considered to be more accurate and adaptable to real-world scenarios and is highly recommended to mitigate sequence risk, as retirees would experience smaller income reductions compared to Guyton-Klinger during historical market downturns.

Interesting. It seems that more and more CFPs claim that risk-based guardrail is the preferable withdrawal strategy for retirement planning, especially for early retirees. Take a look at: 1. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G4D-niuPYU4. 2. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syzZqrmrsy4. 3. https://www.morningstar.com/retirement/how-retirement-income-guardrails-can-ease-clients-worries

Would definitely love to see this feature added. As noted above, this does seem to be the direction in which a lot of modern retirement advice is heading. I am currently in the process of deciding which software to go with long term, and if this became a reality, it would be an absolute no-brainer for me.

Great suggestion. A must-have.

The strategy is dynamic and flexible and unlike traditional models that assume constant rates of return or fixed withdrawal percentages, it adjusts to real market conditions.

The method adjusts withdrawal rates in response to portfolio performance, using “guardrails” to prevent withdrawals from becoming too aggressive or too conservative. It achieves this by adjusting the withdrawal rate to maintain a desired probability of success, so if the portfolio is underperforming, it lowers the withdrawal rate to keep the probability high (of course, it uses Monte Carlo simulations to assess the probability of success).

Another huge advantage is the option to model variable expenses by adding in specific future costs or adjusting the withdrawal to allow for one-time or periodic increases in spending.

As far as I know, it is used as the main strategy in IncomeLab.

Read: https://www.kitces.com/blog/risk-based-monte-carlo-probability-of-success-guardrails-retirement-distribution-hatchet/

Currently, this risk based guardrails strategy seems to be exclusive to retirement planning tools like IncomeLab or Timelinie, which are expensiv and basically only available through professional advisors. if ProjectionLab could include it, this would mean a very unique selling point vs. all other personal tools.

This video shows the functionality on Income Lab pretty in-depth. Could be an orientation for a possible ProjectionLab feature. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NtGZ9DznM3o